Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1606…9a7c crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$52 (-2%) realized +$3 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%23W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% −$535
sports 37% +$237
other 26% +$163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -10.9% -19.4% 33% 32% -12.0%
≤30d 69 -10.9% -19.4% 33% 32% -12.0%
≤90d 69 -10.9% -19.4% 33% 32% -12.0%
all 69 -10.9% -19.4% 33% 32% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 32% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 29% -20.4%
15% -34.2% 28% -28.1%
20% -40.6% 26% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$30 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses23 / 46
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage4d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $55 $1 −$54 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 +$148 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$141 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$109 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $102 −$12 -12%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $112 −$110 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 +$67 +652%
Australia to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 14 $20 +$40 +197%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$9 +9%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 14 $20 +$30 +146%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 6m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 19m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $27 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 14h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 40¢ $102 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 17h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 17h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 26¢ $86 17h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 17h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 19h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.37 · official $4.37 (match) · 108 history records