Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:26:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1609…25a4 other 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$131 (-11%) realized −$138 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%19W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$406now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days−$154
14 days−$143
30 days−$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$102
sports 19% −$50
politics 9% +$1
world 7% +$13
crypto 5% −$12
economics 4% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -27.2% -34.1% 32% 29% -34.8%
≤30d 39 -22.4% -29.8% 33% 31% -32.0%
≤90d 57 -27.2% -34.2% 33% 28% -26.1%
all 57 -27.2% -34.2% 33% 28% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 28% -26.1%
10% -40.5% 26% -33.2%
15% -46.2% 18% -39.7%
20% -51.5% 12% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$406
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses19 / 38
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions27
Markets (closed)57 / 84
History coverage64d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 37¢ 48¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+28%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $18 $24 +$6 (+35%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $21 $16 −$5 (-25%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $16 $13 −$2 (-16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+59%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 37¢ 40¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 52¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+43%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Jun 21 $21 −$1 -6%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 21 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Jun 21 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 19 $16 +$4 +25%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 −$9 -56%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +133%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Croatia to score first vs. England? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 +$15 +53%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $46 +$32 +69%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$13 +122%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $4 $0 -9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$4 +47%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +30%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $5 +$21 +424%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$8 +248%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $24 +$7 +30%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $13 −$3 -26%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 11 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 11 $35 +$9 +25%
Will Nottingham Forest qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEF May 08 $49 +$5 +9%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $8 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $7 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House SELL Yes 36¢ $19 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $20 2h
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $15 2h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 27¢ $20 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $18 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 2d
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 20¢ $16 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 26¢ $7 3d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 19¢ $21 3d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House BUY Yes 36¢ $21 3d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 3d
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 57¢ $15 3d
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 4d
Croatia to score first vs. England? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 4d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $405.88 · official $405.90 (match) · 209 history records