Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1609…f934 world 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 395d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$1
other 17% $0
economics 8% $0
tech 6% −$1
politics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 43% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 43% 0% -9.1%
all 23 -3.8% -12.9% 48% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -9.4%
10% -21.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

395d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage395d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 90¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $74 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $50 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $34 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 27 $7 $0 +3%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -76%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 17 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 04 $16 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 03 $8 $0 +1%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 02 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $7 $0 +4%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 01 $24 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ding Liren win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament? May 22 $0 $0 -20%
Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $44-48m opening wee May 19 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $7 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $10 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $25 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $35 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $8 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $31 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $39 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $35 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 33¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 33¢ $11 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 41¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 41¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 41¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $6 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $24 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $9 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 63¢ $34 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.30 · official $35.30 (match) · 77 history records