Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:40:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

16 0x160a…abae other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate55%6W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$56per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit27%portable

Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$14

7 days+$84

14 days+$84

30 days+$84

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)-10.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+6.0%	-4.1%	60%	60%	+6.0%
≤30d	10	+6.0%	-4.1%	60%	60%	+6.0%
≤90d	11	-1.4%	-10.8%	55%	55%	-10.9%
all	11	-1.4%	-10.8%	55%	55%	-10.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.8%	55%	-10.9%
10%	-19.3%	55%	-19.4%
15%	-27.1%	45%	-27.2%
20%	-34.3%	27%	-34.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 65% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$34 vs −$42 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.96 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage

Net worth$200

Realized+$5

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses6 / 5

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions4

Markets (closed)11 / 15

History coverage38d

Avg bet$56

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	42¢	42¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$50	−$20	-39%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$40	+$14	+35%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$40	+$19	+48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$36	-72%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	+$38	+75%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 15	$51	−$12	-23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$51	+$29	+57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Jun 13	$30	+$9	+30%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	Jun 13	$102	+$92	+90%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o	May 14	$123	−$93	-76%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$51	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	90¢	$30	12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$50	18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	97¢	$30	27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	81¢	$25	28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$40	29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$51	30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	18¢	$14	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$40	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	61¢	$51	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	91¢	$89	3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	SELL Yes	7¢	$40	3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$51	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$51	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	SELL No	86¢	$40	4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	SELL Yes	86¢	$194	4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY No	65¢	$30	19d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o	SELL Yes	4¢	$30	34d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o	BUY Yes	15¢	$123	35d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	BUY Yes	44¢	$102	38d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.09 · official $200.09 (match) · 26 history records