Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x160e…27cf world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 531d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 93% −$4
other 4% −$12
finance 2% −$1
sports 1% +$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+49.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 21 +96.6% +77.9% 52% 10% -9.7%
≤90d 24 +84.0% +66.5% 46% 8% -9.8%
all 30 +64.8% +49.1% 47% 10% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +49.1% 10% -10.3%
10% +34.8% 10% -18.9%
15% +21.8% 7% -26.7%
20% +9.9% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +133% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage531d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $24 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $13 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $15 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $318 −$3 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $76 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $75 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $10 +$1 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $73 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $37 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $2 $0 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $54 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $2 $0 +27%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $28 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $270 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $8 −$1 -13%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $273 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-02-15? Mar 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Kennesaw State vs. Louisiana Tech Feb 14 $9 +$4 +37%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Jan 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $4 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $4 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $13 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $13 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $29 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $14 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $15 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $37 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $7 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $13 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $41 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $41 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records