Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x160f…8f80 crypto 232 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$221 (+10%) realized +$222 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%51W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$400
14 days−$424
30 days−$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$445
sports 4% +$258
other 0% −$5
tech 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-49.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -71.0% -73.8% 9% 9% -82.3%
≤30d 231 -44.2% -49.5% 22% 20% -17.7%
≤90d 231 -44.2% -49.5% 22% 20% -17.7%
all 231 -44.2% -49.5% 22% 20% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.5% 20% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -54.3% 19% -25.6%
15% -58.7% 18% -32.8%
20% -62.8% 18% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$7 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$222
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses51 / 180
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage24d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +246%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$13 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$16 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 25? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 2¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY No 2¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 2¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 520 history records