Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x1610…ae49
sports · 36 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$214,194 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$216,571 · open −$15,540
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Net worth$164,160
Realized+$216,571
Unrealized−$15,540
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses19 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$23,691
Open positions11
Markets (closed)25 / 36
History coverage27d
Avg bet$28,718
Trades / day89.6
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 11 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$118,582
7 days+$139,953
14 days+$220,416
30 days+$216,571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 57¢ 70¢ $29,135 $36,125 +$6,990 (+24%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 22¢ 19¢ $32,301 $28,461 −$3,839 (-12%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 69¢ 69¢ $21,220 $21,371 +$151 (+1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 22¢ 20¢ $19,134 $17,286 −$1,848 (-10%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 68¢ 68¢ $16,433 $16,312 −$121 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 43¢ 30¢ $17,127 $11,813 −$5,315 (-31%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 24¢ 30¢ $9,140 $11,456 +$2,316 (+25%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 13¢ 14¢ $7,355 $7,638 +$283 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 10¢ 10¢ $6,465 $6,460 −$5 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 67¢ 100¢ $3,983 $5,942 +$1,959 (+49%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $1,233 $1,277 +$44 (+4%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 19¢ $7,175 $19 −$7,156 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 17¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 17¢ $3,831 $0 −$3,831 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 30¢ $95,115 $0 −$95,115 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B TheMongolz 55¢ $830 $0 −$830 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $27,328 +$6,851 +25%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $41,369 +$22,785 +55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $43,618 +$6,941 +16%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,134 +$2,511 +118%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $57,523 −$6,582 -11%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $6,568 +$1,411 +22%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $57,178 +$48,887 +86%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $32,584 +$29,674 +91%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $6,062 +$6,106 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $84,839 +$1,713 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $47,744 +$19,658 +41%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $65,397 +$26,534 +41%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 03 $44,066 +$12,003 +27%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $8,088 +$13,928 +172%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3,912 −$3,831 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $44,986 +$31,828 +71%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $128,616 −$103,617 -81%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $14,182 −$5,418 -38%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $12,651 +$26,824 +212%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $841 −$830 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $23,973 +$26,777 +112%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $8,694 −$8,694 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $30,441 +$49,531 +163%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $9,812 +$1,188 +12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 17 $27,549 +$10,395 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% +$180,495
other 7% +$20,536
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $65 0m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $65 0m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $0 1m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $65 1m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $3 1m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $65 1m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $1 1m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $65 1m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $65 1m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 34¢ $2,358 4m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 37¢ $47 4m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 38¢ $3 4m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 38¢ $4 4m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 37¢ $3 4m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $2 5m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $1 5m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $2,020 6m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $130 6m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $3,719 6m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $8 8m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 29¢ $481 8m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $7 12m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z $263 12m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z $5 12m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z $1 12m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z $3 17m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $4 17m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $1 20m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $3 24m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $2 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +49.5% +35.2% 91% 82% +21.6%
≤30d 25 +38.1% +25.0% 76% 72% +16.0%
≤90d 25 +38.1% +25.0% 76% 72% +16.0%
all 25 +38.1% +25.0% 76% 72% +16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover89.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.0% 72% +16.0%
10% +13.0% 60% +4.9%
15% ← realistic here +2.1% 52% -5.2%
20% -7.9% 40% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164,160.03 · official $164,163.11 (match) · 2442 history records