Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:39:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
16 0x1617…d79e crypto 1334 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,099 (+8%) realized +$1,099 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate66%877W / 456L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$11
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$215
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 674 +0.4% -9.2% 79% 20% -9.4%
≤30d 1029 +0.0% -9.5% 68% 30% -10.0%
≤90d 1039 +0.1% -9.4% 68% 30% -10.0%
all 1333 -0.0% -9.5% 66% 32% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 32% -10.9%
10% -18.2% 24% -19.4%
15% -26.1% 24% -27.2%
20% -33.4% 23% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,099
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses877 / 456
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1333 / 1334
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1333 Trades
no open positions (322 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $19 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $28 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $38 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $24 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records