Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1617…d790 sports 214 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (553 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,693 (+8%) realized +$1,776 · open −$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate53%56W / 49L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day553.0pace
Fees−$164est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$7,535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$1,514
other 43% +$258
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (553 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -8.2% -16.9% 53% 36% +2.8%
≤30d 105 -8.2% -16.9% 53% 36% +2.8%
≤90d 105 -8.2% -16.9% 53% 36% +2.8%
all 105 -8.2% -16.9% 53% 36% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover553.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 36% +2.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 30% -7.0%
15% -32.1% 25% -16.0%
20% -38.8% 19% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$61 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7,535
Realized+$1,776
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses56 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$164
Open positions109
Markets (closed)105 / 214
History coverage1d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day553.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 109 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $409 $407 −$2 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 46¢ $390 $402 +$12 (+3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $346 $329 −$17 (-5%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Japan 70¢ 69¢ $323 $320 −$4 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Japan 89¢ 88¢ $314 $309 −$5 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30? No 75¢ 76¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 42¢ $264 $255 −$9 (-4%)
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Ecuador 95¢ 94¢ $250 $249 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw? No 67¢ 66¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
England vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Sweden 44¢ 44¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? No 57¢ 56¢ $236 $234 −$2 (-1%)
France vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 35¢ 34¢ $210 $207 −$3 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 73¢ 72¢ $208 $206 −$1 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Under 68¢ 68¢ $190 $191 +$1 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $193 $190 −$3 (-2%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Ecuador 83¢ 82¢ $188 $187 −$1 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Under 30¢ 30¢ $180 $177 −$3 (-2%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Japan 97¢ 96¢ $159 $158 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 43¢ 42¢ $153 $152 −$2 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $131 $133 +$1 (+1%)
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Under 41¢ 40¢ $132 $128 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 29 $23 −$8 -34%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $94 −$28 -30%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 29 $5 $0 -5%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $288 +$408 +142%
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 Jun 29 $7 −$1 -17%
Spread: New York Liberty (-1.5) Jun 29 $2 +$1 +73%
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 29 $96 −$3 -3%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $2 $0 +11%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $204 −$97 -48%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $110 −$106 -96%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $281 +$33 +12%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 28 $72 −$21 -29%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $51 −$29 -58%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $7 −$7 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $76 −$76 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $665 +$65 +10%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 28 $70 +$56 +81%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $6 −$1 -15%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $35 +$5 +14%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $8 −$7 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $6 −$6 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $161 +$110 +68%
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 28 $4 −$2 -49%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 28 $119 +$47 +39%
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $104 −$96 -92%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $82 −$29 -35%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 28 $3 +$2 +46%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 28 $2 +$2 +114%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 28 $5 +$1 +11%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $6 +$2 +31%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 28 $17 +$13 +75%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $27 +$78 +286%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 28 $7 +$7 +100%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 28 $12 +$8 +64%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 28 $19 −$12 -63%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 28 $30 +$20 +67%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 28 $98 +$22 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 74¢ $2 12m
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? BUY Over 55¢ $2 17m
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill BUY Felix Gill 17¢ $7 27m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 74¢ $4 28m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ $2 31m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Japan 89¢ $251 32m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 74¢ $2 33m
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 49¢ $2 33m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $23 33m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 29¢ $3 38m
Norway leading at halftime? BUY No 64¢ $2 38m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? BUY No 96¢ $2 38m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 29¢ $10 40m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 29¢ $12 41m
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $31 41m
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2 41m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $5 49m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? BUY No 96¢ $2 49m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? BUY No 96¢ $2 56m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 30¢ $2 56m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? BUY No 96¢ $10 59m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 28¢ $18 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $18 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $3 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $3 1h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England 13¢ $19 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ $2 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 33¢ $8 1h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England 13¢ $49 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,534.83 · official $7,535.01 (match) · 798 history records