Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:34:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x161a…4103
sports · 1096 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$27,100 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$25,337 · open +$1,765
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17,794
Realized+$25,337
Unrealized+$1,765
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses666 / 463
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$3,933
Open positions39
Markets (closed)1129 / 1096
History coverage18d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day157.6
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 39 History 1129 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85,475
7 days−$47,370
14 days+$4,018
30 days+$25,337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Over 53¢ 68¢ $1,268 $1,615 +$347 (+27%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 78¢ 75¢ $1,265 $1,216 −$49 (-4%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Chicago White Sox 61¢ 96¢ $719 $1,131 +$412 (+57%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 63¢ 56¢ $1,267 $1,130 −$137 (-11%)
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw? No 67¢ 100¢ $725 $1,082 +$357 (+49%)
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-03? No 88¢ 100¢ $899 $1,022 +$123 (+14%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Washington Mystics 77¢ 92¢ $854 $1,012 +$158 (+19%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5) Boston Red Sox 64¢ 84¢ $759 $996 +$237 (+31%)
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-03? No 77¢ 100¢ $757 $981 +$224 (+30%)
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? No 83¢ 100¢ $732 $882 +$151 (+21%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 57¢ 88¢ $562 $864 +$303 (+54%)
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Washington Mystics 50¢ 94¢ $411 $777 +$366 (+89%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 67¢ 99¢ $501 $736 +$235 (+47%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Chicago White Sox 66¢ 96¢ $480 $693 +$213 (+44%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Under 48¢ 72¢ $361 $541 +$180 (+50%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) Milwaukee Brewers 68¢ 91¢ $269 $360 +$91 (+34%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 68¢ 28¢ $808 $327 −$481 (-60%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Under 73¢ 90¢ $260 $319 +$59 (+23%)
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-03? No 77¢ 100¢ $243 $316 +$73 (+30%)
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03? No 82¢ 100¢ $232 $282 +$51 (+22%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Over 59¢ 56¢ $276 $267 −$10 (-4%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Under 68¢ 50¢ $293 $216 −$77 (-26%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Under 59¢ 50¢ $226 $190 −$36 (-16%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Chicago White Sox 68¢ 99¢ $67 $97 +$31 (+46%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) New York Mets 62¢ 96¢ $61 $96 +$34 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw? Jun 13 $725 +$357 +49%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-03? Jun 13 $899 +$123 +14%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-03? Jun 13 $757 +$224 +30%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? Jun 13 $732 +$151 +21%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-03? Jun 13 $243 +$73 +30%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03? Jun 13 $232 +$51 +22%
Spread: Pistons (-12.5) Jun 13 $19 +$26 +133%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $17 +$8 +44%
SHL: Rögle vs. Skellefteå Jun 13 $18 +$7 +41%
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $19 +$3 +18%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 +$8 +56%
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $15 +$6 +38%
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-02? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $12 +$8 +73%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $11 +$9 +87%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 13 $14 +$6 +45%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $11 +$8 +79%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $9 +$10 +114%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$8 +72%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 13 $11 +$7 +59%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $12 +$5 +41%
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $8 +$5 +61%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 13 $8 +$2 +27%
Spread: Celtics (-12.5) Jun 13 $6 +$4 +70%
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $4 +$2 +47%
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards Jun 13 $4 +$1 +35%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $3 +$2 +72%
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +49%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 13 $1 +$9 +1109%
Will Kilmarnock FC vs. Dundee FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky Jun 13 $1 +$148 +26740%
Seattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards Jun 13 $1 −$11 -2166%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 Jun 13 $0 +$341 +136781%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 13 $0 +$3 +2525%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $0 +$2 +1022%
Connecticut Sun vs. Portland Fire Jun 13 $0 −$38 -62586%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 +96%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 13 $0 +$55 +89391%
Sonic Boom vs. Mobis Phoebus Jun 13 $575 −$594 -103%
Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 13 $195 −$165 -85%
Red Wings vs. Senators Jun 13 $426 −$426 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 40.5 Jun 13 $22 −$23 -102%
Jazz vs. Suns: O/U 233.5 Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Spread: Kings (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 13 $535 −$535 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $720 −$720 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Butler Bulldogs Jun 13 $574 −$586 -102%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,121 −$1,121 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 91% +$113,659
other 8% +$8,777
crypto 0% +$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 58¢ $58 14m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 68¢ $272 14m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 67¢ $24 14m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 58¢ $58 15m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 44¢ $2 18m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,286 20m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 59¢ $164 20m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 66¢ $625 32m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 80¢ $7 32m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 96¢ $138 32m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 24¢ $16 32m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 59¢ $17 32m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 20¢ $14 33m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) BUY New York Mets 62¢ $62 33m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 30¢ $66 33m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 73¢ $262 38m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 52¢ $372 38m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 68¢ $272 39m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 78¢ $1,274 42m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 61¢ $19 42m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 69¢ $98 43m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 69¢ $98 43m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 80¢ $699 44m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 79¢ $107 44m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $54 45m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $53 45m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 59¢ $33 46m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 69¢ $832 47m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 50¢ $413 53m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 61¢ $8 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 690 -15.4% -23.4% 40% 39% -30.5%
≤30d 1129 +18.3% +7.0% 59% 57% -3.5%
≤90d 1129 +18.3% +7.0% 59% 57% -3.5%
all 1129 +18.3% +7.0% 59% 57% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover157.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.0% 57% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -3.2% 54% -12.7%
15% -12.6% 47% -21.1%
20% -21.1% 35% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,793.92 · official $17,737.20 (match) · 3500 history records