Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:44:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x161d…9181 crypto 792 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$136 (-4%) realized −$136 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%419W / 373L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days+$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -6.4% -15.4% 55% 51% -14.3%
≤30d 262 -3.8% -13.0% 56% 51% -10.7%
≤90d 554 -4.7% -13.8% 54% 50% -13.7%
all 792 -7.2% -16.0% 53% 49% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 49% -14.6%
10% -24.1% 47% -22.8%
15% -31.4% 43% -30.3%
20% -38.1% 40% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses419 / 373
Open positions0
Markets (closed)792 / 792
History coverage149d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 792 Trades
no open positions (290 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$14 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$13 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$11 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $17 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $17 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $16 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $19 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $9 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1618 history records