Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x161e…af7f sports 359 markets active 1h ago coverage 653d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%27W / 331L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$28
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$5
other 26% −$16
politics 25% −$16
economics 6% −$1
crypto 4% −$7
world 3% −$4
culture 2% −$5
tech 2% −$4
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.7% -10.2% 4% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 78 -0.9% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 88 -0.8% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.1%
all 358 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

653d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses27 / 331
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)358 / 359
History coverage653d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 358 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $242 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $108 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $116 −$2 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $109 −$2 -2%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $111 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $135 −$2 -1%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $55 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $40 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 13 $94 −$3 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 12 $45 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $168 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $35 $0 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $98 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $44 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $86 $0 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $52 −$1 -3%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 09 $99 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $144 −$2 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 08 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 08 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $264 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $147 −$2 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $8 $0 -6%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $42 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $17 $0 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $100 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $89 −$2 -2%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $98 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 02 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $67 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $51 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $51 8h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $53 9h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $53 17h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $44 17h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $44 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $64 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $65 30h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 30h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 38h
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $55 39h
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $55 45h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $50 45h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $51 2d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $46 2d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $56 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $53 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $44 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $44 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $55 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $51 3d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $51 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $18 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $18 4d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $54 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.51 · official $66.51 (match) · 1336 history records