Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1621…85d5 crypto 701 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,565 (-3%) realized −$1,565 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate38%268W / 436L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day57.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days−$1,066
14 days−$1,054
30 days−$1,103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$717
sports 1% −$205
other 0% −$43
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 297 -19.8% -27.4% 36% 25% -38.1%
≤30d 333 -18.6% -26.3% 38% 26% -32.8%
≤90d 704 -6.0% -15.0% 38% 12% -11.6%
all 704 -6.0% -15.0% 38% 12% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 12% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 9% -20.0%
15% -30.5% 7% -27.8%
20% -37.4% 5% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,565
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses268 / 436
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)704 / 701
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$84
Trades / day57.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 704 Trades
no open positions (55 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $0 −$5 -4608%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $44 −$11 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $137 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $79 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $76 +$45 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$20 +50%
ITF Taipei: Reina Goto vs Misaki Matsuda Jun 16 $8 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $11 +$5 +44%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $14 −$4 -30%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$6 +76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $75 −$74 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +108%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$2 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$4 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $31 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$3 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$4 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$3 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -58%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $19 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $28 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $18 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Sout Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$6 -56%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 13 $13 −$9 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$3 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $33 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $43 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records