Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:24:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1624…db8d other 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$37 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate28%29W / 74L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$14
other 30% −$106
politics 17% −$7
world 3% +$44
crypto 2% +$12
economics 1% −$11
tech 1% −$8
weather 1% −$8
culture 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -7.4% -16.2% 18% 3% -12.6%
≤30d 33 -7.4% -16.2% 18% 3% -12.6%
≤90d 54 -7.6% -16.4% 13% 2% -15.9%
all 103 -5.1% -14.1% 28% 11% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 11% -9.9%
10% -22.3% 6% -18.5%
15% -29.8% 3% -26.4%
20% -36.7% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses29 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)103 / 106
History coverage551d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-23%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? Yes 41¢ 16¢ $20 $8 −$13 (-62%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? No 37¢ 5¢ $18 $2 −$16 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 26 $48 −$1 -2%
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al Jun 26 $10 −$5 -44%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 26 $6 −$2 -31%
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 26 $21 $0 -2%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Se Jun 26 $45 −$3 -6%
Iran full airspace closure by July 31? Jun 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? Jun 26 $12 $0 -3%
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? Jun 26 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 26 $66 −$2 -3%
Will the announcers say "Corner" 10+ times during the Croatia vs Ghana Jun 26 $6 $0 -3%
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? Jun 26 $27 −$1 -5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 26 $74 −$2 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe Jun 26 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the announcers say "Fan" 10+ times during the Norway vs France FI Jun 26 $9 −$2 -21%
Will LI.FI launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -58%
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? Jun 26 $20 $0 -2%
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA Wo Jun 26 $4 −$1 -19%
Will Congress override any veto in 2026? Jun 26 $4 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 26 $10 $0 -3%
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary Jun 26 $50 −$1 -3%
Will the announcers say "Really good play" during the Croatia vs Ghana Jun 26 $0 $0 -2%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Colombia vs Portugal Jun 26 $6 −$1 -9%
Will the announcers say "Oh my God" or "Oh my Goodness" during the Cro Jun 26 $6 −$2 -32%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 26 $20 −$1 -6%
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? Jun 26 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $2 $0 -5%
Will the announcers say "Hydration Break" 5+ times during the Colombia Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Corner" 15+ times during the Colombia vs Port Jun 26 $7 $0 -5%
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30? Jun 26 $19 $0 -1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? Jun 26 $8 $0 -6%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 26 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 25 $22 +$5 +22%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 10 $12 −$3 -21%
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day? May 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and May 09 $13 $0 -4%
Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be between 25 and 49 points May 09 $16 −$1 -4%
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? May 09 $51 −$1 -3%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m May 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will 0 contenders win the jackpot at The American Rodeo Championship W May 09 $3 $0 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 09 $9 $0 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 09 $20 −$1 -2%
Will Sam Petersen win Bareback Riding at The American Rodeo 2026 Champ May 09 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? May 09 $32 $0 -1%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 09 $20 −$1 -4%
Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pre May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 09 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $26 −$2 -6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 09 $47 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 50¢ $25 29m
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al SELL No 10¢ $4 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 22¢ $4 1h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL Yes 70¢ $7 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 50¢ $25 1h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 70¢ $7 1h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Se SELL No 43¢ $21 1h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Se BUY No 44¢ $22 1h
Iran full airspace closure by July 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? BUY No 37¢ $18 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL No 72¢ $36 1h
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY No 73¢ $36 1h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Iran full airspace closure by July 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL No 60¢ $8 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY No 60¢ $8 1h
Will the announcers say "Corner" 10+ times during the Croatia vs Ghana SELL No 30¢ $6 1h
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL No 26¢ $13 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL No 60¢ $22 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 45¢ $22 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL No 70¢ $34 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY No 60¢ $22 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY No 71¢ $36 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 46¢ $23 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 31¢ $6 1h
Will the announcers say "Corner" 10+ times during the Croatia vs Ghana BUY No 30¢ $6 1h
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY No 26¢ $13 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL No 38¢ $19 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.36 · official $22.36 (match) · 404 history records