Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:30:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
16 0x1625…6ff7 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$435per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$8
politics 18% −$2
economics 15% −$1
culture 11% −$2
world 10% −$1
tech 9% −$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$858) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage94d
Avg bet$435
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 28 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 28 $1,121 −$2 -0%
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 28 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 10 $95 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $75 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 04 $809 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $858 −$2 -0%
Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 03 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $825 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 02 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 02 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $855 −$4 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $19 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $108 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential Apr 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $130 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 27 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Macron out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 30m
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,152 37m
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 44m
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,115 54m
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,119 1h
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,109 1h
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $794 1h
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $272 1h
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 2h
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,067 2h
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May SELL No 100¢ $95 49d
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 100¢ $81 49d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 99¢ $40 49d
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 100¢ $14 49d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 49d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $19 49d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $21 49d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 49d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 49d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 55d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $75 55d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 55d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 55d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No $0 55d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 100¢ $146 55d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 55d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records