Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1627…9bca sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$83 (+10%) realized +$83 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$283
other 17% +$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -21.8% -29.2% 35% 30% -20.0%
≤30d 23 -21.8% -29.2% 35% 30% -20.0%
≤90d 23 -21.8% -29.2% 35% 30% -20.0%
all 23 -21.8% -29.2% 35% 30% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 30% -20.0%
10% -36.0% 30% -27.7%
15% -42.2% 26% -34.7%
20% -47.9% 26% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$30 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage5d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $174 −$170 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$7 +22%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $41 +$1 +3%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $52 −$31 -61%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $66 +$213 +324%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 +$10 +100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $50 +$25 +50%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 −$37 -71%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 +$37 +72%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $22 −$22 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $71 +$54 +76%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -10%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $13 −$1 -9%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +64%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 17 $21 −$13 -62%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $36 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 84¢ $37 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $46 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 43¢ $42 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $31 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes $20 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $41 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $10 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes $10 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $5 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $26 15h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 15h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $20 15h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $10 15h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $20 15h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $20 15h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 19h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 10¢ $15 19h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 20h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 52¢ $24 20h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 20h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 33¢ $51 20h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $25 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 19¢ $2 22h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $15 23h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 57¢ $51 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records