Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x1629…9b11
other · 237 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$179 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$126 · open −$53
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$126
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses119 / 114
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)233 / 237
History coverage170d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%
Chart Positions 4 History 233 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$60
14 days+$0
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 79¢ 77¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 69¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10? Down 33¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-14? Yes 89¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will FC Metz win on 2026-01-04? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Genoa CFC vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-03? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-01-14? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Paris FC win on 2026-02-21? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-01-13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-01? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-01-15? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-15? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-02-23? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-01-18? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-07? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-07? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-03? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-07? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-04? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $54 −$53 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $33 −$7 -21%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $57 +$49 +87%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $26 +$23 +87%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16? May 16 $21 +$35 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10? May 10 $147 −$36 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9? May 09 $5 +$1 +21%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? May 08 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 06 $2 +$2 +82%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18? Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 12 $8 −$1 -19%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 12 $4 +$1 +32%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 12 $4 +$2 +52%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Mar 12 $6 +$2 +35%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 12 $6 +$3 +42%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-28? Mar 04 $2 $0 +15%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-28? Mar 04 $2 $0 +16%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-28? Mar 04 $2 $0 +19%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-02-28? Mar 04 $2 $0 +20%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-28? Mar 04 $4 −$1 -24%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 04 $2 $0 +24%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? Mar 04 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-28? Mar 04 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 04 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 04 $8 −$3 -42%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Mar 04 $4 −$2 -56%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $8 −$3 -43%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Mar 04 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $4 −$1 -27%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Mar 03 $0 $0 -89%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Mar 03 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $2 −$1 -32%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Feb 28 $4 −$3 -65%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $2 −$1 -50%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-02-23? Feb 24 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-02-23? Feb 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-02-21? Feb 23 $4 −$1 -30%
Will RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? Feb 23 $2 $0 +14%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 23 $2 +$1 +27%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-21? Feb 23 $4 +$1 +30%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $4 −$4 -91%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Feb 21 $2 −$2 -84%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $2 −$2 -84%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Feb 21 $2 $0 +20%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 55% −$130
sports 32% −$47
crypto 11% $0
world 1% −$2
finance 0% +$2
politics 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $29 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 2h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 18h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 18h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 18h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 18h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 18h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 18h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 18h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 18h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 18h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 18h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 18h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 18¢ $5 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 18¢ $3 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 18¢ $1 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 16¢ $4 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 32¢ $9 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 39¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 23¢ $6 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 21¢ $6 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $6 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $7 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 56¢ $16 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 57¢ $16 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -60.5% -64.3% 0% 0% -72.6%
≤30d 6 +20.0% +8.6% 50% 50% +6.3%
≤90d 12 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 50% -10.1%
all 233 -11.5% -19.9% 51% 45% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 45% -17.2%
10% -27.6% 29% -25.1%
15% -34.6% 19% -32.4%
20% -41.0% 13% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.04 · official $2.04 (match) · 699 history records