Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:59:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x1629…b0ec
crypto · 355 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,816 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,618 · open −$198
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$3,618
Unrealized−$198
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses163 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)354 / 355
History coverage9d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day52.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 354 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,989
7 days+$4,433
14 days−$3,618
30 days−$3,618
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $200 $2 −$198 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $148 $0 −$148 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $138 $0 −$138 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $310 $0 −$310 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $286 $0 −$286 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $700 $0 −$700 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $416 +$506 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $199 −$190 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $514 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $315 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $316 +$909 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $309 +$207 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $313 +$487 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $310 +$254 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $416 +$430 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $314 +$567 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $314 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $311 +$309 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $312 −$289 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $315 +$656 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $311 +$348 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $300 −$286 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $313 +$497 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $314 +$569 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $311 +$314 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $316 +$827 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $313 +$407 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $311 +$291 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $414 +$372 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $313 +$141 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $514 +$301 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $517 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $515 +$358 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $941 −$700 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $153 −$148 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $209 +$362 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $518 +$488 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $209 +$304 +146%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $518 +$481 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $314 +$615 +196%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$3,682
sports 1% +$251
other 1% −$385
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $236 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $174 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $178 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $148 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $366 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $67 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $248 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $243 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $70 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $316 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $309 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $185 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $313 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $564 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $310 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $846 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $342 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $312 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $314 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $293 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $620 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $311 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $64 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 251 -0.8% -10.3% 49% 48% -3.9%
≤30d 354 -8.3% -17.0% 46% 45% -12.5%
≤90d 354 -8.3% -17.0% 46% 45% -12.5%
all 354 -8.3% -17.0% 46% 45% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover52.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 45% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 45% -20.9%
15% -32.2% 42% -28.5%
20% -38.8% 39% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.74 · official $1.74 (match) · 624 history records