Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
16 0x162c…6c47 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6,742 (+11%) realized +$6,745 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,816per market
Trades / day30.1pace
Fees−$810est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$48,577
other 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -5.6% -14.6% 50% 50% +66.8%
≤30d 16 -5.6% -14.6% 50% 50% +66.8%
≤90d 16 -5.6% -14.6% 50% 50% +66.8%
all 16 -5.6% -14.6% 50% 50% +66.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 50% +66.8%
10% -22.7% 50% +50.8%
15% ← realistic here -30.2% 44% +36.3%
20% -37.1% 38% +22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +84% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +84% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6,105 vs −$31 · ×195.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×195.38 per $1 lost it wins $195.38
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,504
Realized+$6,745
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$810
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2,816
Trades / day30.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $705 $697 −$7 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $690 $697 +$6 (+1%)
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 44¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-5%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 29 $17 +$17 +101%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $56,595 +$48,303 +85%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $126 +$186 +148%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $4 +$3 +86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $31 −$22 -72%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $469 +$309 +66%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $134 −$47 -35%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $32 +$18 +55%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $18 +$5 +26%
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -99%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $68 −$67 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $12 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $17 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $17 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $17 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 29¢ $6 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $4 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $68 3h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $6 3h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $6 3h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $6 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 52¢ $21,972 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $13 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $18 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $27 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $20 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $9 5h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $27 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $18 7h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $441 7h
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $91 10h
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $716 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 45¢ $26 11h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $28 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 54¢ $700 14h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 54¢ $1,924 16h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 54¢ $32,699 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,503.90 · official $1,503.90 (match) · 55 history records