Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x162e…7cf3 other 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$586 (-4%) realized −$581 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate76%53W / 17L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$43
14 days−$1,283
30 days−$728
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$788
other 25% −$215
sports 24% +$141
politics 12% +$202
crypto 1% +$50
tech 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -10.0% -18.6% 65% 50% -11.3%
≤30d 37 -7.8% -16.6% 65% 49% -18.4%
≤90d 55 -1.8% -11.2% 71% 47% -12.8%
all 70 -0.4% -9.9% 76% 41% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 41% -13.1%
10% -18.5% 19% -21.4%
15% -26.4% 13% -29.0%
20% -33.6% 7% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$145 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$1,363
Realized−$581
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses53 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions13
Markets (closed)70 / 83
History coverage147d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Jun 29 $155 +$15 +10%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $42 −$40 -94%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $14 +$3 +20%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $263 +$37 +14%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $9 +$3 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $9 −$2 -18%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $141 −$141 -100%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $288 +$72 +25%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $5 −$2 -44%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $200 +$50 +25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $128 +$12 +9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $97 +$53 +55%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 24 $178 +$22 +12%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 24 $135 +$15 +11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $7 +$3 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $161 −$161 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $95 +$10 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $221 +$39 +18%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $64 −$19 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 22 $821 −$821 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $868 −$59 -7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $48 −$32 -67%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $180 −$83 -46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $183 +$15 +8%
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 19 $42 +$8 +20%
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? Jun 18 $48 +$7 +14%
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary elec Jun 15 $46 +$3 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $289 −$278 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $564 +$36 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 04 $50 +$31 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $394 +$257 +65%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $340 +$40 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $435 +$65 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $778 +$113 +14%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $124 +$16 +13%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) May 31 $28 −$3 -10%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $563 −$344 -61%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 28 $236 +$14 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 28 $661 +$138 +21%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $142 +$58 +41%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 13 $397 +$24 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $58 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $47 +$3 +6%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $241 +$9 +4%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $701 +$54 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? May 02 $168 +$32 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $216 +$24 +11%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? May 02 $286 +$114 +40%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans Apr 24 $134 −$84 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin SELL Andrey Rublev 70¢ $97 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 36¢ $4 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 51¢ $5 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 51¢ $5 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 53¢ $3 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 55¢ $3 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 55¢ $3 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 57¢ $3 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 60¢ $3 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 65¢ $3 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 68¢ $3 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 70¢ $4 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 72¢ $4 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 75¢ $8 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 79¢ $4 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 76¢ $38 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin SELL Andrey Rublev 72¢ $73 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 39¢ $1 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 45¢ $5 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 55¢ $6 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 60¢ $6 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 62¢ $6 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 65¢ $6 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 67¢ $34 5h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $7 18h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $297 18h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 18h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $42 18h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL South Africa 35¢ $17 19h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,363.41 · official $1,363.41 (match) · 529 history records