Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x162f…978f politics 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (168 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$8,745 (-26%) realized −$3,238 · open −$5,507
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +188% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +113% what you keep after slip
Net edge+113%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,807per market
Trades / day168.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11,779now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% −$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+160.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +187.6% +160.2% 100% 100% +200.9%
≤90d 3 +187.6% +160.2% 100% 100% +200.9%
all 3 +187.6% +160.2% 100% 100% +200.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover168.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +160.2% 100% +200.9%
10% +135.3% 67% +172.1%
15% ← realistic here +112.6% 67% +145.8%
20% +91.7% 67% +121.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +233% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +188% · $-wt +233% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
178.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,780 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$11,779
Realized−$3,238
Unrealized−$5,507
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)3 / 12
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$2,807
Trades / day168.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $6,389 $2,839 −$3,550 (-56%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,423 $2,373 −$50 (-2%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2,390 $2,278 −$112 (-5%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 51¢ 48¢ $1,945 $1,842 −$104 (-5%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1,528 $901 −$626 (-41%)
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 43¢ 30¢ $934 $643 −$291 (-31%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1,169 $640 −$529 (-45%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 25¢ 13¢ $465 $245 −$220 (-47%)
Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $43 $18 −$25 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,220 +$211 +17%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $37 +$20 +54%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $1,039 +$5,110 +492%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3m
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19m
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 26m
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27m
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 34m
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 37m
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 45m
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 54m
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $236 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 14¢ $220 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 14¢ $280 2h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $230 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,778.77 · official $11,780.37 (match) · 3500 history records