Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:57:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x1631…072d
sports · 787 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,082 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,090 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$45
Realized−$1,090
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses387 / 392
Est. fees paid−$652
Open positions10
Markets (closed)779 / 787
History coverage13d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day236.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 10 History 779 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$639
14 days−$1,090
30 days−$1,090
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Seattle Mariners 58¢ 98¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+68%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Over 81¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+23%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Over 39¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 66¢ 84¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+28%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Houston Astros 0¢ 88¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 48¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Over 80¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Over 81¢ 73¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 Over 73¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Over 80¢ 50¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-37%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Over 39¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Under 56¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Under 82¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Yes 47¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Over 78¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Over 33¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Under 44¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) Atlanta Braves 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) Milwaukee Brewers 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Cleveland Guardians 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 Under 61¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5 Over 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -88%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $5 −$1 -14%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $11 +$3 +24%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $6 −$5 -87%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $9 −$4 -45%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $9 +$3 +33%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $4 +$2 +36%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $8 −$2 -31%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $17 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $9 +$3 +32%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $7 +$1 +21%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 12 $8 $0 +6%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $7 +$6 +89%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $6 +$4 +65%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $7 +$3 +46%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $8 +$4 +47%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $9 −$6 -66%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $6 +$1 +23%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 11 $7 +$3 +40%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 11 $4 +$1 +13%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $6 +$6 +96%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $8 +$3 +36%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $7 +$2 +30%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $9 −$8 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $6 +$6 +89%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $16 +$1 +8%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $5 +$17 +317%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$1,080
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 85¢ $4 2m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 6m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 66¢ $4 6m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 65¢ $1 9m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 65¢ $2 9m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 67¢ $3 13m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 14m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 81¢ $4 17m
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) SELL Cincinnati Reds 12¢ $1 20m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 70¢ $0 20m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 70¢ $4 20m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 81¢ $4 22m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 48¢ $4 24m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 26m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 81¢ $5 33m
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 97¢ $5 43m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 SELL Over 15¢ $1 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 87¢ $4 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 82¢ $5 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 84¢ $4 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Seattle Mariners 83¢ $6 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 70¢ $4 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 73¢ $4 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 81¢ $5 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 72¢ $5 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 312 -9.6% -18.2% 53% 46% -24.6%
≤30d 779 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 43% -12.2%
≤90d 779 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 43% -12.2%
all 779 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 43% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover236.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 43% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 36% -20.6%
15% -24.9% 29% -28.3%
20% -32.3% 20% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.99 · official $41.66 · 3500 history records