Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:44:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
16 0x1633…1e55 sports 270 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$699 (+5%) realized +$696 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%74W / 182L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days−$148
14 days−$377
30 days+$689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$1,727
other 45% −$762
crypto 1% −$54
world 1% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +63.2% +47.7% 33% 33% -20.9%
≤30d 60 +38.5% +25.3% 37% 37% +3.8%
≤90d 256 +7.4% -2.8% 29% 29% -4.0%
all 256 +7.4% -2.8% 29% 29% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 29% -4.0%
10% -12.1% 28% -13.2%
15% -20.6% 28% -21.6%
20% -28.4% 27% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$48 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$696
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses74 / 182
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions2
Markets (closed)256 / 270
History coverage75d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $145 $142 −$3 (-2%)
South Africa leading at halftime? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $51 $56 +$5 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 28 $101 +$221 +218%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $102 +$142 +140%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 28 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? AND Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw Jun 25 $21 +$203 +986%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw Jun 24 $20 +$96 +467%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $32 +$14 +43%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $85 −$5 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $105 +$165 +158%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$47 -94%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $56 +$144 +257%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $99 +$175 +177%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$229 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $57 +$143 +250%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 +$68 +129%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $106 +$194 +183%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $54 +$196 +365%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 +$279 +550%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $57 +$143 +250%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 08 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $103 −$103 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $28 +$48 +170%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $49 +$91 +186%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 04 $33 +$67 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $52 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $148 1h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 95¢ $157 17h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $103 26h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 26h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 30¢ $101 26h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 33h
Norway vs. France: Draw at halftime? AND Will Norway vs. France end in BUY 14¢ $50 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? AND New Zealand vs. Bel BUY 14¢ $50 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Draw at halftime? AND Sweden leading at halft BUY 6¢ $31 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 7¢ $21 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: BUY 12¢ $51 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 29¢ $102 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 26¢ $51 4d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? AND Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw BUY 9¢ $21 4d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $52 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 5d
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw BUY 17¢ $20 5d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $45 5d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $50 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $86 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 44¢ $80 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $85 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $59 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $59 6d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06 BUY 7¢ $21 6d
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? AND Jordan vs. Algeria: Draw BUY 1¢ $21 6d
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? AND Jordan vs. Algeria: Draw BUY 7¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.38 · official $198.44 (match) · 963 history records