Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:27:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x1635…5624
other · 104 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$4,732 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8,835 · open +$6,219
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26,620
Realized−$8,835
Unrealized+$6,219
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses59 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions29
Markets (closed)75 / 104
History coverage39d
Avg bet$1,748
Trades / day46.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%
Chart Positions 29 History 75 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,171
7 days+$4,653
14 days+$6,397
30 days−$9,276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 59¢ $709 $4,927 +$4,218 (+595%)
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 46¢ 57¢ $2,618 $3,252 +$634 (+24%)
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 64¢ 65¢ $2,932 $2,960 +$28 (+1%)
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 84¢ 92¢ $2,468 $2,704 +$236 (+10%)
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $1,459 $1,573 +$115 (+8%)
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 26¢ 24¢ $1,527 $1,432 −$95 (-6%)
Will Cap launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 95¢ 91¢ $1,446 $1,388 −$58 (-4%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $932 $990 +$58 (+6%)
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 66¢ $896 $930 +$34 (+4%)
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 90¢ $647 $715 +$68 (+10%)
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 57¢ 74¢ $542 $697 +$155 (+29%)
Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $570 $575 +$5 (+1%)
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 57¢ 74¢ $392 $502 +$110 (+28%)
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 25¢ $386 $498 +$112 (+29%)
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? No 49¢ 64¢ $333 $432 +$99 (+30%)
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $247 $408 +$160 (+65%)
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $324 $379 +$55 (+17%)
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 84¢ 87¢ $348 $360 +$12 (+4%)
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $345 $349 +$3 (+1%)
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 73¢ $187 $310 +$123 (+66%)
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 35¢ 44¢ $225 $286 +$62 (+27%)
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 28¢ 42¢ $145 $213 +$68 (+47%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? No 33¢ 42¢ $152 $192 +$40 (+26%)
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 66¢ $166 $185 +$18 (+11%)
Will Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2027? Yes 87¢ 95¢ $161 $175 +$14 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $1,143 +$115 +10%
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $1,395 +$56 +4%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4,667 +$314 +7%
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 12 $2,301 +$353 +15%
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1,215 +$219 +18%
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $1,808 +$96 +5%
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch Jun 11 $80 $0 -0%
Will Ethereal launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $211 +$18 +9%
Over $4M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 10 $86 +$50 +58%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $99 +$73 +74%
Tabi FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 09 $667 +$73 +11%
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 09 $1,612 +$36 +2%
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 09 $1,077 +$86 +8%
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 09 $3,017 +$236 +8%
Over $2M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 09 $683 +$558 +82%
Over $1M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 09 $397 +$1,698 +427%
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 09 $2,260 +$98 +4%
Will Curvance launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1,186 +$102 +9%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 08 $1,527 +$196 +13%
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 08 $2,744 +$145 +5%
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 07 $1,191 +$61 +5%
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 07 $464 +$8 +2%
Will Ethereal launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 07 $202 +$62 +31%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $4,535 +$689 +15%
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 05 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 05 $79 +$1 +2%
Will Reppo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $64 +$4 +6%
Will Reya launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 05 $312 +$51 +16%
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch Jun 04 $3,158 +$829 +26%
Tea FDV above $300M one day after launch Jun 04 $972 +$46 +5%
Tea FDV above $100M one day after launch Jun 04 $451 +$132 +29%
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 03 $238 +$74 +31%
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 03 $1,866 −$70 -4%
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 02 $1,413 +$213 +15%
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $242 +$77 +32%
Will Concrete launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $412 +$56 +14%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $97 +$13 +13%
Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $138 +$37 +27%
Will Noble launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $70 +$6 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $14,439 −$1,714 -12%
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $74 +$9 +13%
Tea FDV above $200M one day after launch Jun 01 $384 +$27 +7%
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 01 $79 −$12 -15%
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $322 +$74 +23%
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $305 +$18 +6%
Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 01 $119 +$41 +34%
Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 01 $250 +$17 +7%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $446 +$22 +5%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 31 $488 +$60 +12%
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2026? May 31 $509 +$58 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 90% −$2,144
crypto 10% −$1,397
sports 1% +$925
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 57¢ $404 27m
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? BUY No 38¢ $4 45m
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 57¢ $294 1h
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 58¢ $104 1h
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $156 1h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $92 1h
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $207 1h
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? BUY No 38¢ $7 1h
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? BUY No 33¢ $148 1h
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $114 1h
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $281 2h
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $3 2h
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $4 2h
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $163 2h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 40¢ $345 2h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $22 3h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $262 3h
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 3h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 40¢ $11 3h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 42¢ $2 3h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $32 4h
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 48¢ $208 5h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 43¢ $9 5h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 45¢ $546 5h
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $43 6h
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6h
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 6h
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 6h
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +35.0% +22.2% 96% 39% +4.5%
≤30d 72 +12.3% +1.6% 81% 44% -14.7%
≤90d 75 +11.6% +1.0% 79% 44% -14.2%
all 75 +11.6% +1.0% 79% 44% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.0% 44% -14.2%
10% -8.7% 25% -22.4%
15% ← realistic here -17.5% 11% -29.9%
20% -25.6% 11% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,619.78 · official $26,620.35 (match) · 1935 history records