Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
16 0x1635…55d6 other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,872 (+4%) realized +$1,994 · open −$122
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate77%76W / 23L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$444per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$636now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$395
14 days+$497
30 days+$1,254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$1,668
crypto 1% +$7
world 1% +$24
weather 0% −$114
sports 0% +$28
politics 0% −$25
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +21.8% +10.2% 73% 55% -3.3%
≤30d 41 +13.2% +2.4% 78% 49% -3.7%
≤90d 92 -1.9% -11.3% 76% 27% -6.0%
all 99 -1.5% -10.9% 77% 26% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 26% -6.0%
10% -19.4% 17% -15.0%
15% -27.2% 9% -23.2%
20% -34.3% 4% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$683) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$74 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$636
Realized+$1,994
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses76 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 104
History coverage103d
Avg bet$444
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 84¢ 70¢ $758 $636 −$122 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,710 −$66 -4%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $740 +$114 +15%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $670 +$64 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $537 +$133 +25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $33 +$69 +206%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $583 −$116 -20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $545 +$36 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $480 +$65 +14%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $364 +$118 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $630 −$267 -42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,445 +$89 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $383 +$88 +23%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $475 +$75 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $383 +$117 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $252 +$48 +19%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $231 +$9 +4%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $273 +$24 +9%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $121 +$17 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $243 +$35 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $273 +$12 +4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 08 $5 −$4 -95%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $38 −$36 -94%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $207 +$35 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $124 +$26 +21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $110 +$40 +37%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $27 +$37 +139%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1,044 +$395 +38%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $954 +$112 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1,042 −$90 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1,065 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,059 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $1,062 +$14 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $997 +$52 +5%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division P May 28 $17 +$54 +313%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $1,014 +$3 +0%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $71 +$29 +42%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $698 +$296 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $682 +$16 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $161 +$6 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $1,065 −$395 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $1,052 +$18 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $860 +$191 +22%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $608 +$252 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $761 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 82¢ $762 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $884 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 67¢ $882 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $826 2h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $27 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $854 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $740 29h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 64¢ $10 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $733 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $670 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 84¢ $670 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $531 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $33 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 56¢ $467 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $577 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 70¢ $581 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $545 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $480 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 50¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $364 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 45¢ $363 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $630 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 38¢ $255 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 39¢ $509 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,445 10d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY $565 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $471 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $635.83 · official $635.83 (match) · 352 history records