Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1638…b0a1 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$72 (-12%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day80.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$76
other 12% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -14.2% -22.3% 42% 42% -28.1%
≤30d 19 -14.2% -22.3% 42% 42% -28.1%
≤90d 19 -14.2% -22.3% 42% 42% -28.1%
all 19 -14.2% -22.3% 42% 42% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 42% -28.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 37% -35.0%
15% -36.5% 37% -41.3%
20% -42.8% 37% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$28 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day80.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$54 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$16 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$27 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$24 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$34 +103%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -96%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records