Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:44:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x163d…7c69 crypto 1676 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,098 (-21%) realized −$2,098 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%966W / 742L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$103
14 days−$143
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,615
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 402 -2.9% -12.2% 76% 72% -10.6%
≤30d 406 -3.4% -12.6% 76% 72% -11.6%
≤90d 1555 -6.6% -15.5% 56% 55% -13.8%
all 1708 -3.3% -12.5% 57% 55% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 55% -24.1%
10% -20.9% 45% -31.3%
15% -28.5% 38% -38.0%
20% -35.5% 34% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,098
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses966 / 742
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1708 / 1676
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1708 Trades
no open positions (220 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $0 −$1 -760%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $0 −$4 -973%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $0 −$1 -246%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $0 −$4 -897%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $0 −$4 -748%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $0 −$1 -288%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $0 −$1 -164%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $0 −$10 -2204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $0 +$1 +448%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $0 −$2 -511%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $0 −$3 -826%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $0 −$3 -712%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $0 −$4 -940%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $0 −$4 -913%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $0 −$3 -686%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $0 −$1 -640%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $0 −$2 -474%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $0 −$2 -592%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $0 −$4 -1413%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$3 -436%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $0 −$1 -570%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$2 -341%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $0 −$3 -730%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $0 −$2 -394%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 +135%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $132 −$91 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$4 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$6 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$5 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $111 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $15 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $15 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records