trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -14.0% | -22.2% | 29% | 0% | -7.5% |
| ≤30d | 22 | -1.7% | -11.1% | 36% | 9% | -5.6% |
| ≤90d | 24 | -1.6% | -10.9% | 38% | 8% | -5.9% |
| all | 29 | -2.3% | -11.6% | 45% | 7% | -6.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.6% | 7% | -6.1% |
| 10% | -20.1% | 3% | -15.1% |
| 15% | -27.8% | 3% | -23.3% |
| 20% | -34.9% | 0% | -30.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 32¢ | $64 | $61 | −$3 (-5%) |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-56%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 17 | $99 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Jun 15 | $107 | +$2 | +2% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $30 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 12 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $391 | +$13 | +3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 11 | $50 | $0 | -1% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 10 | $51 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 10 | $106 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 09 | $194 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 08 | $34 | +$5 | +14% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $144 | +$70 | +49% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 06 | $70 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 05 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 04 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 02 | $68 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 01 | $43 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 29 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 28 | $129 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 24 | $45 | −$1 | -1% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 23 | $357 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 21 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | May 13 | $84 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | May 11 | $69 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? | Dec 10 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? | Mar 25 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Washington vs. Wisconsin | Mar 03 | $6 | +$1 | +10% |
| UNC Wilmington vs. William & Mary | Feb 25 | $12 | −$5 | -44% |