Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
16 0x1642…78d0 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$144 (+7%) realized +$152 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$782now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$24
sports 32% +$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +8.0% -2.3% 70% 60% +3.1%
≤30d 10 +8.0% -2.3% 70% 60% +3.1%
≤90d 10 +8.0% -2.3% 70% 60% +3.1%
all 10 +8.0% -2.3% 70% 60% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 60% +3.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.6% 40% -6.8%
15% -20.2% 40% -15.8%
20% -28.0% 20% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$89 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$782
Realized+$152
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $330 $328 −$2 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $260 $256 −$4 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $103 +$178 +172%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $201 +$43 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $103 +$70 +67%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $204 −$121 -59%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $52 +$19 +36%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $52 +$1 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $55 −$45 -82%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $201 +$42 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $61 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $331 2h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $103 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 18h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 18h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $71 18h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 30¢ $77 18h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $53 19h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $52 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $52 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $103 23h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 97¢ $243 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $55 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $782.33 · official $782.33 (match) · 25 history records