Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:13:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1646…2f81 sports 644 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,136 (-4%) realized −$3,124 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%347W / 283L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$550est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,080now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$565
7 days−$209
14 days−$723
30 days−$1,856
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$2,453
other 15% −$402
world 2% −$188
finance 1% −$241
tech 0% +$1
politics 0% −$273
economics 0% −$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -9.8% -18.4% 45% 40% -12.2%
≤30d 205 -7.1% -15.9% 51% 45% -17.0%
≤90d 534 -9.2% -17.9% 52% 43% -16.0%
all 630 -7.2% -16.0% 55% 45% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 45% -14.1%
10% -24.1% 31% -22.3%
15% -31.4% 21% -29.8%
20% -38.1% 15% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$60 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$1,080
Realized−$3,124
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses347 / 283
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$550
Open positions14
Markets (closed)630 / 644
History coverage135d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 630 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $412 $426 +$14 (+4%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Aryna Sabalenka 82¢ 80¢ $251 $243 −$8 (-3%)
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $93 $86 −$7 (-8%)
Will Elina Svitolina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $51 $45 −$6 (-12%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 54¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $32 $42 +$11 (+34%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will Linda Nosková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $33 $35 +$2 (+8%)
Will Barbora Krejčíková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $27 $29 +$2 (+7%)
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes $28 $25 −$3 (-11%)
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes $23 $22 −$1 (-2%)
Will Donna Vekić be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $26 $20 −$7 (-25%)
Will Anna Kalinskaya be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $22 $16 −$6 (-27%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Donna Vekic vs. Alexandra Eala: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $35 +$15 +43%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $84 −$48 -58%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $194 +$21 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $104 +$16 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $97 +$24 +24%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $35 +$67 +188%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $89 +$13 +14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $54 −$39 -73%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $75 +$14 +18%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $254 +$173 +68%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $103 −$5 -4%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $73 +$27 +37%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Pedri: 1+ assists Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Marcos Llorente: 1+ goals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Cucurella: 1+ assists Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Rodri: 1+ assists Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $345 −$345 -100%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Nico Williams: 1+ goals Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Alex Baena: 1+ goals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 15 $36 −$15 -41%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,125 −$28 -2%
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 15 $45 −$8 -19%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr Jun 15 $4 −$4 -88%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 15 $11 −$5 -51%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 15 $40 −$21 -52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$8 +40%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $149 −$134 -90%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 15 $92 −$48 -52%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 15 $50 −$32 -66%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 15 $123 −$99 -80%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $228 +$12 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $226 +$1 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -75%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -80%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -93%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $7 −$5 -77%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 15 $8 −$6 -75%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 15 $28 −$22 -80%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? Jun 15 $31 −$19 -62%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $79 +$21 +27%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $200 +$49 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $45 1h
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $2 1h
Donna Vekic vs. Alexandra Eala: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2.5 100¢ $50 1h
Donna Vekic vs. Alexandra Eala: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $35 2h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Donna Vekic 24¢ $35 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 82¢ $87 6h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 55¢ $28 6h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 82¢ $165 6h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 55¢ $56 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $104 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $14 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $181 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $28 15h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $28 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $69 15h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 15¢ $15 16h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $35 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 78¢ $36 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $89 19h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 84¢ $75 21h
Will Linda Nosková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes $1 21h
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 17¢ $354 21h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry SELL Diane Parry 95¢ $212 21h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry SELL Diane Parry 96¢ $215 21h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 56¢ $121 24h
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska SELL Dayana Yastremska 49¢ $1 24h
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska SELL Dayana Yastremska 50¢ $23 24h
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska SELL Dayana Yastremska 50¢ $75 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,080.32 · official $1,080.92 (match) · 2213 history records