Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:05:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
16 0x1647…2187 sports 175 markets active 0h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,470 (-3%) realized −$3,470 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate91%155W / 15L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$608per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$3,213
weather 13% −$123
crypto 10% +$22
other 4% −$154
politics 1% −$9
world 0% $0
finance 0% +$7
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 31 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 41 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 170 -4.4% -13.5% 91% 5% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 5% -12.5%
10% -21.8% 3% -20.9%
15% -29.3% 2% -28.5%
20% -36.3% 2% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$531 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized−$3,470
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses155 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)170 / 175
History coverage610d
Avg bet$608
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Atreides 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Esport BERG (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A ASTRAL 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg - Map 2 Winner Yawara Esports 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Yawara Esports 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE - Map 1 Winner Fluxo 100¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng Jun 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 28 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $17 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpic Jun 27 $100 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham Jun 27 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 27 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs Clutchain Female (BO3) - Rainhas do C Jun 26 $10 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs Clutchain Female - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $10 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Play Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs Clutchain Female - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs Endless Journey (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $115 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $115 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr Jun 24 $110 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 13 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 39°C or higher on May 6? May 06 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 4? May 05 $110 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 1? May 01 $110 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 25? Apr 30 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 23? Apr 24 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 17? Apr 22 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 13? Apr 15 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on April 11? Apr 11 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 8? Apr 10 $107 $0 +0%
Will London have between 60-70mm of precipitation in March? Apr 07 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 16? Mar 29 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 8? Feb 15 $106 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 07 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 23? Jan 20 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on Dece Dec 23 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or below on Nove Dec 12 $106 $0 +0%
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or higher on Nov Nov 22 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or higher on Nov Nov 21 $105 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE - Map 1 Winner BUY Fluxo 100¢ $20 21m
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Esport BERG (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group BUY ASTRAL 100¢ $85 1h
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Esport BERG (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group BUY ASTRAL 100¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng BUY Atreides 100¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg - Map 2 Winner BUY Yawara Esports 100¢ $60 1h
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg (BO3) - CCT South America BUY Yawara Esports 100¢ $42 1h
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg (BO3) - CCT South America BUY Yawara Esports 100¢ $58 1h
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg - Map 2 Winner BUY Yawara Esports 100¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng BUY Subtop De France 99¢ $100 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 100¢ $100 7h
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Honvéd 100¢ $100 8h
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner BUY OlyBet SB 100¢ $51 10h
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner BUY OlyBet SB 100¢ $49 10h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest - Map 2 Winner BUY roamsfiest 100¢ $100 24h
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpic BUY UNO MILLE 99¢ $100 25h
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner BUY UNO MILLE 99¢ $17 25h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa - Map 2 Winner BUY Game Hunters 100¢ $60 25h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa - Map 2 Winner BUY Game Hunters 100¢ $40 25h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY ShindeN 100¢ $100 28h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY ShindeN 100¢ $100 28h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $49 30h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $51 30h
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie - Map 2 Winner BUY NEW VISION 100¢ $10 30h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $10 31h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY MIBR Academy 100¢ $10 47h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner BUY MIBR Academy 100¢ $10 47h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY ex-Sashi Academy 99¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs Clutchain Female - Map 2 Winner BUY Clutchain Female 95¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs Clutchain Female (BO3) - Rainhas do C BUY Clutchain Female 95¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs Clutchain Female - Map 1 Winner BUY Clutchain Female 100¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.72 · official $420.72 (match) · 368 history records