Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:00:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1647…f879 crypto 419 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$345 (+0%) realized −$17,769 · open −$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate44%358W / 454L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day584.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$467now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,519
other 0% −$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-50.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 812 -44.7% -50.0% 44% 12% -21.3%
≤30d 812 -44.7% -50.0% 44% 12% -21.3%
≤90d 812 -44.7% -50.0% 44% 12% -21.3%
all 812 -44.7% -50.0% 44% 12% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover584.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.0% 12% -21.3%
10% ← realistic here -54.8% 5% -28.8%
15% -59.2% 3% -35.7%
20% -63.2% 3% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$58 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$467
Realized−$17,769
Unrealized−$135
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses358 / 454
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)812 / 419
History coverage5d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day584.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 812 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down on June 15? Up 84¢ 97¢ $182 $210 +$28 (+16%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 37¢ 20¢ $370 $205 −$165 (-45%)
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 5PM ET Down 34¢ 100¢ $4 $12 +$8 (+199%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Down 56¢ 56¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 15? Up 55¢ 85¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+55%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Up 46¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Up 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6AM ET Up 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 1PM ET Up 26¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+285%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Down 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 51¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+96%)
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Down 80¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Up 77¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 8AM ET Up 35¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+186%)
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 91¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 5PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 1PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +285%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +96%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 8AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down on May 9? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 5AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 7PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +233%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 9PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +26%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 3PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 4AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 4AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +108%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $85 −$85 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 9AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 6AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 2AM ET Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 11PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $287 −$218 -76%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $122 −$109 -90%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 8PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$40 -90%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 4AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 8PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 2PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $91 −$120 -132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 19m
XRP Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 97¢ $12 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $12 25m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 35m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 37m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 38m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 59m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 95¢ $69 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $9 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $14 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $35 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $37 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $140 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $42 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $69 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $13 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $22 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $37 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $74 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $36 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $466.55 · official $444.85 · 3500 history records