Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:17:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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16 0x164c…ff8c crypto 705 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$17 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate93%648W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$52
14 days−$80
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$43
weather 12% −$99
sports 3% −$3
other 3% −$141
world 3% −$7
politics 2% +$22
tech 2% +$5
finance 2% −$4
culture 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -12.0% -20.4% 79% 26% -12.6%
≤30d 193 -0.6% -10.0% 88% 33% -9.2%
≤90d 476 -0.4% -9.9% 92% 23% -10.3%
all 699 -0.4% -9.9% 93% 17% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 17% -10.2%
10% -18.5% 7% -18.8%
15% -26.4% 3% -26.6%
20% -33.6% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$33 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses648 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)699 / 705
History coverage132d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 699 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 27? No 99¢ 98¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 27? No 97¢ 97¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 27? No 92¢ 94¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Yes 90¢ 89¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? Down 79¢ 79¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $3 +$2 +79%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? Jun 26 $44 +$6 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $31 +$6 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $39 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 25? Jun 26 $32 +$3 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 25? Jun 26 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $16 +$4 +25%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 25 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$3 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $137 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 25? Jun 25 $107 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $12 +$3 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5AM ET Jun 25 $13 +$2 +15%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $70 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $47 +$3 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $12 +$3 +24%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 24? Jun 24 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? Jun 24 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $58 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $69 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Jun 24 $26 +$4 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $37 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $68 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $69 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $39 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? Jun 19 $70 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $7 +$3 +52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $13 +$2 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$4 +47%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $48 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $59 52m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 27? BUY No 92¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 79¢ $16 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 27? BUY No 92¢ $9 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 90¢ $27 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $39 22h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 73¢ $11 22h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 67¢ $10 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $69 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 56¢ $3 24h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 74¢ $15 38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? BUY No 80¢ $12 40h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $69 41h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $59 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 83¢ $21 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $14 41h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $18 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 83¢ $9 41h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 88¢ $44 41h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $14 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 41h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? BUY No 80¢ $4 41h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $48 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $49 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 47h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Germany 98¢ $39 2d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 85¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 94¢ $38 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.10 · official $168.30 (match) · 1739 history records