Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:50:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x164c…20c1 world 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate36%39W / 68L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$5
14 days−$10
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$29
politics 20% $0
other 19% −$2
sports 16% −$3
economics 3% +$3
crypto 2% −$6
finance 0% −$15
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.6% -9.0% 73% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 34 -3.9% -13.0% 47% 3% -9.1%
≤90d 79 -2.7% -12.0% 37% 1% -9.5%
all 107 -1.9% -11.3% 36% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 1% -9.4%
10% -19.8% 1% -18.1%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses39 / 68
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage290d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $82 +$4 +5%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $82 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $83 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $59 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $91 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $59 +$1 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $170 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $12 $0 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $19 −$12 -60%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $188 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $92 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $203 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $183 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $222 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $20 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $146 +$7 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $81 −$2 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $96 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $87 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $63 −$2 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $91 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $83 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $94 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $93 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $38 +$3 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $45 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $19 −$3 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $62 +$20 +31%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $49 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 18 $3 $0 -14%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 -8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $134 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $774 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $130 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $72 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $145 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $71 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $153 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $74 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $86 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $82 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $34 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $48 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $16 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $66 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $2 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $81 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $83 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $59 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $59 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 45h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $91 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $91 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $60 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $59 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $81 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $68 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $13 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $81 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $80 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $8 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $8 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $89 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.00 (match) · 453 history records