Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x164c…3e39
weather · 442 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$6,310 +39%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,890 · open +$118
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$423
Realized+$1,890
Unrealized+$118
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses221 / 210
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)431 / 442
History coverage35d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day94.1
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 9 History 431 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$527
14 days+$359
30 days+$1,422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 58¢ 62¢ $116 $125 +$9 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 15¢ 20¢ $60 $82 +$22 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Yes 19¢ 98¢ $13 $68 +$55 (+421%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 59¢ $40 $66 +$27 (+68%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $39 $50 +$11 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Yes 30¢ 45¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $18 $9 −$9 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Yes 44¢ 49¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 2? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 7? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 7? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 7? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or higher on June 7? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 7? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 8? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 7? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 2? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$5 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $16 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $63 +$34 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $84 +$69 +82%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $54 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $91 +$31 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 −$14 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$12 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $123 +$18 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $52 −$52 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $173 +$84 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$23 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $39 +$23 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$37 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $137 −$46 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$8 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$12 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $170 +$19 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $140 +$28 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $67 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $52 −$33 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $46 +$9 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 +$13 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $7 +$13 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $12 +$8 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $16 +$9 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $33 +$7 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $35 −$27 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $34 +$68 +197%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $28 −$27 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $89 −$28 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $199 −$14 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 97% +$1,952
world 1% +$56
politics 1% −$8
crypto 1% +$19
sports 0% +$9
other 0% −$4
tech 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 8m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 9m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 10m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 13m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 19m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 21m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 23m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 39m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 42m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 15¢ $60 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 58¢ $58 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 58¢ $58 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 17¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 80¢ $8 13h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 79¢ $8 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 +3.0% -6.8% 43% 37% +3.3%
≤30d 378 +9.1% -1.3% 48% 42% +0.1%
≤90d 431 +11.6% +0.9% 51% 44% +1.7%
all 431 +11.6% +0.9% 51% 44% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover94.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.9% 44% +1.7%
10% ← realistic here -8.7% 34% -8.0%
15% -17.5% 26% -16.9%
20% -25.6% 20% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.06 · official $423.06 (match) · 3500 history records