Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
16 0x1653…24b0 other 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$603 (-3%) realized −$592 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate65%89W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days−$297
14 days−$216
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$1,002
world 7% +$96
politics 5% +$237
sports 2% −$84
crypto 1% +$18
tech 1% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -37.4% -43.3% 44% 44% -36.0%
≤30d 16 -17.2% -25.1% 62% 62% -15.9%
≤90d 77 +0.9% -8.7% 64% 62% -7.8%
all 137 -1.0% -10.4% 65% 63% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 63% -13.1%
10% -19.0% 50% -21.4%
15% -26.8% 35% -29.0%
20% -34.0% 20% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$112 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$389
Realized−$592
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses89 / 48
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)137 / 141
History coverage161d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 84¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 46¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$51 +51%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +45%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$24 +24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$90 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$43 +42%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $99 +$39 +39%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 31 $298 +$52 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $100 +$28 +28%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $301 +$39 +13%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $199 +$42 +21%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $100 +$40 +40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $101 −$101 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $100 +$23 +23%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $100 −$5 -5%
Will CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 03 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $201 +$109 +54%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $101 −$32 -32%
Will PSV win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $101 +$91 +90%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $102 −$102 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $102 +$450 +442%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Apr 30 $102 −$27 -26%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 30 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $100 +$97 +97%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $99 +$36 +36%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $99 +$105 +105%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $99 +$21 +21%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $99 +$45 +46%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $100 +$24 +24%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $91 +$22 +24%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $99 +$67 +67%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $99 +$67 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 23 $99 −$99 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $99 +$27 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $102 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $103 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $293 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $144 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 91¢ $138 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $100 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $118 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $129 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $340 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $301 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $241 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $100 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $100 25d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 25d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 26d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 26d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 26d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $103 26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 26d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 33d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 33d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 42d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $389.24 · official $389.24 (match) · 328 history records