Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:25:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
16 0x1655…9cf2 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-6%) realized −$36 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.5% -10.9% 75% 25% -18.5%
≤30d 5 -1.0% -10.4% 80% 20% -16.5%
≤90d 5 -1.0% -10.4% 80% 20% -16.5%
all 5 -1.0% -10.4% 80% 20% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 20% -16.5%
10% -19.0% 20% -24.5%
15% -26.8% 20% -31.8%
20% -34.0% 0% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$59 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage15d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $23 +$11 +48%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $179 +$5 +3%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 22 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 22 $98 −$59 -60%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.59 · official $100.59 (match) · 30 history records