Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1656…d289 crypto 26 markets active 3d ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-32%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%6W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$14
other 26% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-47.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -42.1% -47.6% 24% 20% -43.1%
≤30d 25 -42.1% -47.6% 24% 20% -43.1%
≤90d 25 -42.1% -47.6% 24% 20% -43.1%
all 25 -42.1% -47.6% 24% 20% -43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.6% 20% -43.1%
10% -52.6% 20% -48.5%
15% -57.2% 20% -53.5%
20% -61.4% 12% -58.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses6 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +80%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 South Africa? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 South Africa? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +36%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 $0 -15%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 $0 -10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND BUY 9¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 South Africa? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 South Africa? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 6d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 South Africa? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records