Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1656…2182 world 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate39%31W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$3
politics 25% $0
other 18% −$3
sports 12% −$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 22 +1.0% -8.7% 45% 9% -9.2%
≤90d 66 -0.9% -10.3% 33% 5% -9.4%
all 79 -2.8% -12.1% 39% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 8% -9.6%
10% -20.5% 4% -18.2%
15% -28.2% 1% -26.1%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses31 / 48
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage527d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $23 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $8 +$1 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -19%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $124 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $41 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $127 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $23 −$1 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +20%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $42 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $44 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 22 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $12 +$1 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $17 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $85 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 09 $3 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 09 $72 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 08 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $7 $0 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $133 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $81 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $13 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $1 $0 +20%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $81 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $122 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $201 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $77 $0 -0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $41 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $45 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $45 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $23 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $3 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $10 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $21 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $12 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $23 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $9 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $8 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes $1 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes $1 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 9d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $9 10d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $32 10d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $1 10d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $41 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $39 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $33 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.35 · official $41.35 (match) · 338 history records