Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:02:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x1659…42f8
weather · 701 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$48 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$57 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses383 / 319
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)702 / 701
History coverage210d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 10 History 702 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? $3,000 70¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+177%)
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? No 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 10? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down on May 18? Up 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 23? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 3? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 16? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 3? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 16? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 16? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 3? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 16? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 16? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 16? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 3? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 16? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on June 3? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 3? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or below on May 16? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -38%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 +166%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 73% −$19
weather 20% +$5
other 4% −$30
world 2% −$2
sports 1% −$5
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 17h
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? BUY No 2¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? BUY Down 0¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 70¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 74¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 72¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +18.4% +7.1% 43% 34% -12.9%
≤30d 257 +17.9% +6.7% 47% 31% -14.6%
≤90d 460 +14.9% +3.9% 50% 35% -12.2%
all 702 +8.3% -2.0% 55% 30% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 30% -12.4%
10% -11.4% 23% -20.7%
15% -19.9% 17% -28.4%
20% -27.8% 15% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.63 · official $1.51 (match) · 1844 history records