Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:18:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
16 0x1659…63e8 weather 750 markets active 0h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$278 (+4%) realized +$280 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate95%701W / 34L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days+$13
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$266
other 1% +$4
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +1.7% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 116 +1.7% -8.0% 98% 3% -7.2%
≤90d 342 +2.4% -7.3% 97% 2% -7.0%
all 735 +4.2% -5.7% 95% 7% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 7% -6.2%
10% -14.8% 2% -15.2%
15% -23.0% 1% -23.4%
20% -30.5% 1% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×10.32 per $1 lost it wins $10.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized+$280
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses701 / 34
Open positions15
Markets (closed)735 / 750
History coverage238d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 735 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 25? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 25? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 25? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 25? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 69°F or below on June 24? No 99¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 25? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 25? No 96¢ 95¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 24? No 99¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 25? No 99¢ 98¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 25? No 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 25? No 95¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 24? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on June 24? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 23? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 23? Jun 24 $7 $0 +1%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 73°F or below on June 23? Jun 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 22 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on June 21? Jun 22 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 21 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 21 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 21 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 94°F or higher on June 20? Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 20 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 17? Jun 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 Jun 18 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 17 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $21 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 94°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 9? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 9? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 10? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $40 8h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 99¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 69°F or below on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on June 24 BUY No 99¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 69°F or below on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $7 31h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June BUY No 99¢ $7 31h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 73°F or below on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 99¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.78 · official $178.97 (match) · 2085 history records