Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:31:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
16 0x1659…04cc sports 265 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$131 (+1%) realized +$157 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%148W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$418
14 days−$128
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$462
other 21% −$224
crypto 11% −$109
world 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -20.9% -28.4% 44% 39% -26.0%
≤30d 40 -1.2% -10.6% 45% 42% -12.2%
≤90d 208 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 44% -8.6%
all 263 +2.2% -7.6% 56% 47% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 47% -8.1%
10% -16.4% 39% -16.9%
15% -24.5% 30% -24.9%
20% -31.9% 22% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$23 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$157
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses148 / 115
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions1
Markets (closed)263 / 265
History coverage121d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 70¢ 52¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $250 +$99 +40%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $102 +$28 +27%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $74 −$73 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $49 +$111 +226%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $233 −$127 -55%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $446 +$8 +2%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $130 −$129 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $181 +$44 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $120 +$68 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$19 +19%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $61 −$5 -9%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 +$41 +93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $97 +$46 +48%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $100 −$3 -3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$24 -48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $75 −$74 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$62 -61%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $431 +$366 +85%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $204 −$79 -39%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $69 +$30 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 +$80 +79%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $10 +$20 +194%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $20 +$64 +312%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $92 +$89 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $15 −$3 -19%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $91 +$104 +114%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $400 −$232 -58%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $233 +$107 +46%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $209 −$72 -35%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal May 18 $422 −$18 -4%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 215.5 May 12 $83 +$37 +45%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $457 +$11 +2%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $131 −$32 -24%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $30 −$1 -4%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $122 +$85 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 52¢ $120 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 48¢ $120 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 50¢ $129 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $102 8h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $101 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 59¢ $100 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $74 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $160 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $49 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 16¢ $37 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 58¢ $132 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 54¢ $68 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $101 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $205 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $83 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 39¢ $83 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $126 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 36¢ $126 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $188 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 47¢ $41 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 56¢ $50 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $16 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $33 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $93 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 29¢ $100 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $130 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 23¢ $102 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $181 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.57 · official $73.57 (match) · 614 history records