Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
16 0x165b…3415 other 135 markets active 3d ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$18
politics 30% −$12
sports 12% −$7
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 134 -1.1% -10.5% 10% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 5% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 4% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage113d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $286 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $41 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $178 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $225 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $178 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $218 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $423 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $414 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $175 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $217 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $403 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $209 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $256 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $192 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 12 $258 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $461 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $219 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 20 $364 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $230 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $197 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 18 $183 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $193 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $237 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $232 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 14 $213 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $185 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $231 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $235 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $215 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 2d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 2d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 3d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 3d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 8d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 8d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 15d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 15d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 15d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $28 15d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $28 15d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $178 15d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $178 20d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $225 20d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $225 20d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 21d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 22d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $240 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.98 (match) · 372 history records