Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:52:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x165e…a331 crypto 1347 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (142 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$467 (-7%) realized −$211 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate61%824W / 521L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day141.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$309
14 days−$72
30 days−$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$194
other 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (142 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 391 -22.2% -29.6% 42% 41% -19.7%
≤30d 1345 -2.4% -11.7% 61% 45% -12.3%
≤90d 1345 -2.4% -11.7% 61% 45% -12.3%
all 1345 -2.4% -11.7% 61% 45% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover141.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 45% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 28% -20.7%
15% -27.8% 20% -28.3%
20% -34.9% 16% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$211
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses824 / 521
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1345 / 1347
History coverage21d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day141.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 61¢ 55¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$37 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$6 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$11 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$7 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$8 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$6 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$7 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$9 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$8 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$9 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$17 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$12 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $24 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $24 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.31 · official $4.63 (match) · 3500 history records