Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x165e…d94d
crypto · 89 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,283 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,510 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$215
Realized−$1,510
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses39 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)76 / 89
History coverage59d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 13 History 76 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$640
7 days−$637
14 days−$637
30 days−$637
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-91%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $228 $0 −$228 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $109 −$22 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $69 −$34 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$50 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $125 +$23 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $240 −$33 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $71 −$45 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $153 −$84 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$90 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $219 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $322 −$16 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $113 −$102 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $94 +$22 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $155 −$125 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$18 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $35 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $34 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $171 −$100 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $210 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $72 +$26 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $109 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $132 −$38 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 59% −$609
world 29% −$557
politics 8% −$312
other 3% −$17
sports 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $34 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $35 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $64 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $6 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $12 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $12 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $16 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $14 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $9 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $9 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $6 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -6.6% -15.5% 59% 45% -24.3%
≤30d 64 -6.6% -15.5% 59% 45% -24.3%
≤90d 76 -15.3% -23.4% 51% 39% -33.9%
all 76 -15.3% -23.4% 51% 39% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 39% -33.9%
10% -30.7% 28% -40.2%
15% -37.4% 20% -46.0%
20% -43.5% 12% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.24 · official $215.47 (match) · 453 history records