Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:03:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1660…8f99 other 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%18W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$39
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$36
sports 22% −$11
politics 21% −$12
crypto 11% −$4
finance 5% −$12
culture 4% −$2
world 3% −$2
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.7% -10.1% 14% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 55 -1.1% -10.5% 11% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 101 -0.7% -10.2% 13% 0% -10.0%
all 120 -0.7% -10.1% 15% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses18 / 102
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage100d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 93¢ 92¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 17 $28 $0 +1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $343 −$3 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $54 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 16 $118 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $59 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $135 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $170 −$3 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $101 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 13 $95 −$2 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $217 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $110 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $113 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $55 $0 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W Jun 10 $58 −$12 -21%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $174 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 06 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $38 −$2 -4%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $192 −$3 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $168 −$1 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $44 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $232 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $88 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $159 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $312 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $111 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $238 $0 +0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $121 −$4 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $97 −$1 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $39 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $41 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 21 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $309 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $54 1h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 93¢ $28 1h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 92¢ $28 6h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $53 7h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $54 14h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $32 15h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $32 23h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $61 23h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $61 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $54 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $57 34h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $57 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $57 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $59 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $46 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $29 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $50 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $49 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $50 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $7 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $7 2d
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $55 2d
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $41 3d
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.74 · official $53.74 (match) · 476 history records