Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1663…2490 other 260 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 248L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$24
14 days−$33
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$45
sports 23% −$21
economics 6% −$7
politics 6% −$6
culture 5% −$5
world 5% −$5
crypto 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 259 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)259 / 260
History coverage137d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $254 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $467 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $410 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $126 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $487 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $1,001 −$2 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $624 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $307 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $403 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $126 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $452 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $606 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $760 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $126 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $675 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $416 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $439 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $154 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $164 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $64 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $269 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $378 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $337 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $543 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 06 $402 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $392 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $274 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $255 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $141 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $359 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $640 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 29m
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 1h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $58 8h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 10h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 11h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 12h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $59 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $59 15h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $40 19h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $19 20h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 21h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 23h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 24h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $59 29h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 30h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 32h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 33h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $49 33h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 35h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 37h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 38h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $60 39h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 42h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 43h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 45h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 47h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.18 · official $58.18 (match) · 1400 history records