Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x1668…41cb
crypto · 58 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$11 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$10
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses35 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 1 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 72¢ 52¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 22¢ 48¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+120%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ goals Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Edson Álvarez: 2+ goals Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $9 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 04 $16 −$8 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 04 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 04 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 04 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 04 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 04 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 04 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 04 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 24 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 24 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 24 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 24 $4 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 24 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 24 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 24 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 24 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 24 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 24 $0 $0 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 24 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 24 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 24 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 24 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 24 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% −$10
other 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $0 3h
Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $10 15h
Edson Álvarez: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -15.7% -23.8% 69% 23% -7.3%
≤30d 51 -11.5% -19.9% 63% 18% -11.4%
≤90d 57 -12.0% -20.4% 61% 19% -12.3%
all 57 -12.0% -20.4% 61% 19% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 19% -12.3%
10% -28.0% 11% -20.7%
15% -35.0% 4% -28.3%
20% -41.3% 2% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.09 · official $10.15 (match) · 210 history records