trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +25.6% | +13.7% | 75% | 50% | +1.6% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 57% | 43% | +6.0% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -4.8% | -13.8% | 53% | 35% | +4.1% |
| all | 17 | -4.8% | -13.8% | 53% | 35% | +4.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.8% | 35% | +4.1% |
| 10% | -22.1% | 35% | -5.9% |
| 15% | -29.6% | 24% | -15.0% |
| 20% | -36.5% | 18% | -23.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 45¢ | 38¢ | $2,753 | $2,378 | −$375 (-14%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 19¢ | $700 | $796 | +$96 (+14%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 14¢ | $600 | $489 | −$111 (-19%) |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 56¢ | 44¢ | $100 | $78 | −$22 (-22%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $513 | +$43 | +8% |
| Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $359 | +$159 | +44% |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $1,216 | −$113 | -9% |
| Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 16 | $359 | +$212 | +59% |
| Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 10 | $49 | −$48 | -98% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $776 | −$9 | -1% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 09 | $514 | +$258 | +50% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? | Jun 08 | $8 | −$8 | -94% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 08 | $1,117 | +$106 | +10% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $1,686 | +$590 | +35% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? | May 28 | $51 | +$39 | +76% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee | May 27 | $8 | −$8 | -95% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | May 27 | $1,100 | −$12 | -1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 27 | $2,158 | +$492 | +23% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | May 23 | $990 | +$45 | +5% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 23 | $100 | −$6 | -6% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 26 | $100 | −$72 | -72% |