Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
16 0x166e…48bf crypto 901 markets active 6d ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,256 (+4%) realized +$1,256 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%477W / 424L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$115
30 days−$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +8.6% -1.7% 42% 38% -9.6%
≤30d 346 +1.6% -8.0% 41% 27% -11.2%
≤90d 901 +11.6% +1.0% 53% 43% -8.4%
all 901 +11.6% +1.0% 53% 43% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.0% 43% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -8.7% 38% -17.2%
15% -17.5% 32% -25.2%
20% -25.6% 26% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,256
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses477 / 424
Open positions0
Markets (closed)901 / 901
History coverage51d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 901 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$7 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $37 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $49 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$21 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $49 −$17 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $37 +$11 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $37 +$11 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$8 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $37 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $37 −$14 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$12 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$9 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$21 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $37 −$23 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$9 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $37 +$12 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$9 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$11 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $50 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $37 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $50 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $50 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $37 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $50 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $37 +$13 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $49 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$9 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $37 +$13 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2925 history records